Modeling, simulation, scenarization and algorithms in public policy
Panel 16P01 of the 2015 International Conference on Public Policy, Milan, 1-4 July 2015
Chair:: Stefan Aykut, LISIS, East-Paris University, Bilel Benbouzid, LISIS, East-Paris University
Computer-based modeling, simulations, scenarization and algorithms are fast entering the realm of public policy making. To be sure, experts advising governments in various domains have long been using models and modeling techniques, in the simple sense of the creation of systems of elements that are logically or formally related to one another. The availability of “big data” and the growing calculation power of computers, however, are dramatically increasing the capacity to model and thus to simulate, visualize, anticipate, build scenarios or predict. Crime and social unrest (Brantingham et Brantingham, 2004), toxicity (Andersen et al., 1995), energy production and consumption (Hourcade et al., 2006), or climate change (Guillemot, 2014, Edwards, 2010) and sustainability questions (Garb et al., 2008, Vieille-Blanchard, 2007) are domains in which models developed by scientific communities and public administrations feed into global, national and regional policy-making. In this sense, modeling and simulations represent technical innovations in governance and public policy-making.
To analyze these developments, we propose to build on insights, methods and concepts from public policy analysis, science and technology studies (STS) (Jasanoff et al., 1995), and the (new) political sociology of science (Frickel et Moore, 2006, Bonneuil et Joly, 2013) The objective of the panel is to investigate, first, in which domains and to what extent public policy-making has become prone to computer-based modeling, scenarization and simulation. Second, we aim to assess the nature of the changes these new practices create in public policy-making. Third, we ask if and how these techniques are becoming the object of specific forms of public regulation (e.g. emergence of a “governance of public simulation").
We propose three axes of inquiry: Production. How and where are policy-relevant models, scenarios and algorithms produced? Is there a "market" for models? Proposals in this axis will study scientists, experts, particular industries, administrations or companies, look into the competition between those actors and their relationships with public decision-making. Public Policy. How are these tools used in public decision-making? What transformations do we see (or not) in decision-making? Proposals in this axis will study governmental bodies, agencies, international organizations, etc., to track evolutions in the types of knowledge used, changes in decision-making procedures, modes of organization, and outside communication. Public Debate and Civil Society. How do models and simulations circulate in the public sphere, spur debates and provoke controversy? Proposals in this axis will focus on an analysis of the public space, mobilizations and controversies, to 1) track resistance to new forms of public policy-making based on modeling or simulation, and 2) see to what extend social movements or NGOs use models and simulations to back their claims.
To analyze these developments, we propose to build on insights, methods and concepts from public policy analysis, science and technology studies (STS) (Jasanoff et al., 1995), and the (new) political sociology of science (Frickel et Moore, 2006, Bonneuil et Joly, 2013) The objective of the panel is to investigate, first, in which domains and to what extent public policy-making has become prone to computer-based modeling, scenarization and simulation. Second, we aim to assess the nature of the changes these new practices create in public policy-making. Third, we ask if and how these techniques are becoming the object of specific forms of public regulation (e.g. emergence of a “governance of public simulation").
We propose three axes of inquiry: Production. How and where are policy-relevant models, scenarios and algorithms produced? Is there a "market" for models? Proposals in this axis will study scientists, experts, particular industries, administrations or companies, look into the competition between those actors and their relationships with public decision-making. Public Policy. How are these tools used in public decision-making? What transformations do we see (or not) in decision-making? Proposals in this axis will study governmental bodies, agencies, international organizations, etc., to track evolutions in the types of knowledge used, changes in decision-making procedures, modes of organization, and outside communication. Public Debate and Civil Society. How do models and simulations circulate in the public sphere, spur debates and provoke controversy? Proposals in this axis will focus on an analysis of the public space, mobilizations and controversies, to 1) track resistance to new forms of public policy-making based on modeling or simulation, and 2) see to what extend social movements or NGOs use models and simulations to back their claims.
Session 1
Friday, July 03th 10h45 - 12h45 (Salle 22)
The Integrating Assessment Modeling Community: overview, structuring and interactions with the IPCC expertise christophe cassen, CIRED / Beatrice Cointe, CIRED (Centre for International Research on the Environment and Development)
Social Minister for a Day: Analyzing the SORESI microsimulation webmodel as a tool for policy formation and civic knowledge Katrin Gasior, European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research
Politicizing energy futures : A history of energy turnaround scenarios in Germany Stefan Aykut, LISIS
Has foresight changed the anticipatory policy work in Whitehall? The cases of energy and health policy in the United Kingdom Maxime Petit Jean, Catholic University of Louvain
Discussant: Bilel Benbouzid
Session 2
Friday, July 03th 16h45 - 18h45 (Salle 16)
Making the data-driven city. How does the socio-technical shaping of data analytics change the government of the city? Antoine Courmont, Sciences Po.
Modeling global food security, a technology governing world agricultural trade and research? Lise Cornilleau, LISIS
Crime prediction and algoritmic reasonning Bilel Benbouzid, LISIS
The bureaucratic legitimation of modeling. Insights from the history of QSAR modeling at the US Environmental Protection Agency David Demortain, LISIS/ Henri Boullier, LISIS
Discussants: Stefan Aykut, LISIS, David Demortain, LISIS
